What is Financial Modelling and How to Build a Comprehensive One?
Investment
banks decide a public-going company’s valuation by creating financial models. Private
equity firms depend on financial modelling to make investment decisions. Mergers
and acquisitions happen after creating detailed financial models. And due
diligence into a company’s future is also decided by taking the help of
financial models. In this fast-paced world where businesses are always looking
to outrun the market, predicting the future is some way is important. Financial
models help managers and executives do just that where decisions get based on
facts and numbers instead of intuitions and assumptions.
With the
above it is clear that people who know how to build a financial model
will always be on-demand.
Financial
modelling is a technique with which businesses forecast financial futures to
understand possible performances. Based on historical data and a few logical
assumptions, financial models can paint the growth or dip curve in terms of
cash flow, revenue, capital and more. In other words, financial models predict
the business’s health a few years down the lane and help decision-makers to
evaluate investment opportunities in the present day.
Going back to
the examples stated in the introduction, company A creates a relevant financial
model of company B to understand how their merger now will help both in the
future. Similarly, investment banks build financial models to determine the
right IPO value now so that they make a profit by selling to interested
promoters later. As evident, by grasping what is financial modelling and
becoming efficient in building one can propel any candidate’s career into sure
shot success as the concept resides in the DNA of companies of all sizes.
How to build
a comprehensive financial model?
Creating
financial models involve a flurry of detailed steps. Each varies with the type
of model that you intend to build. However, to give you a synopsis of how to
build a financial model, here is an overview of the necessary steps.
1.
Assumptions based on history
All
financial models start with collecting data from the company’s history. Hence,
you will have to gather the financial statements of the company for the past
3-5 years and look at their growth trends. Accordingly, you make assumptions as
to what the picture will look like in the future following the same curve.
Equipped
with historical data and the necessary assumptions, you are now to calculate
the parameters of the 3 important financial statements for a future time. You
place calculated figures for gross profit, operating expenses, accounts
receivable and inventory size. You also make necessary adjustments to
accommodate depreciation and debt.
Discounted
cash flow helps you to come to the present value that you can safely invest. Based
on your predictions and calculations, DCF discounts the cash flow of the future
and returns the required intrinsic value. The DCF step also requires you to
include sensitivity analysis so that your results are as close to the real
world as possible.
The
final step of how to build a financial model is always depicting your
analysis with the help of graphs and auditing every parameter to remove errors.
Such complex nuances of financial modelling can only be mastered by training. Even
testing can become complicated if you use large formulas in Excel and present
in an unorganised form.
Very useful and informative post. Thanks for sharing with us.
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